recap on hurricane lee

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Lee_(2023) - not much damage
in nova scotia apparently

from the posts we made along the way -

sept 5 - aimed at sc/nc per nhc diagram

sept 6 and 7 - aimed at sc

sept 8 - aimed at FL

sept 9 - turns to north

somewhere along here it swerved a little towards boston and maine -
(but that might have been the projected track - the actual swerve
near the end was towards whiting maine and away from nova scotia)

sept 12 - aimed at nova scotia

sept 13 - aimed at whiting maine

sept 15 - aimed at NS

sept 16 - landfall in nova scotia

remarks - nhc produced maps showing the likely path of the storm from
sept 5 to sept 16 - for the first 4 days the maps showed the storm
aiming at SC - but everyone knew that it was going to turn to the
north - by sept 10 the spaghetti showed that landfall would be at nova
scotia area - so there was approx 6 days to prepare for landfall - we
suspect that there is a serious possibility that a rapid storm could
sneak into the usa before widescale evacuations could be completed -
maybe around miami or new orleans or houston - due to the warmer
waters in the gulf coast area - but that is mostly a wild guess on our
part

here is a good article from 2022 describing recent advances in
hurricane forecasts - they seem to be nearly twice as accurate as 10
to 20 years ago -
https://www.13newsnow.com/article/weather/hurricane/hurricane-forecast-error-history-explainer/291-8b2230d2-29f7-4bb7-8049-350261a03699